April 2022 Nickel & Surcharge Update

April 2022 Update

Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.

Unchartered Territory:

As stated in our last update, our worry turned from supply to pricing, and we maintain that stance.
EU energy crisis will impact pricing and supply - natural gas necessary to melt steel

April Energy s/c = $0.20/lbs., and may hit $0.60/lbs. this summer.
The threat of gas rationing is real, and some steel mills will lose their supply.

LME NI price nearing 15 YEAR HIGHS

Tremendous uncertainty with Ni trading given last month's stoppage.
March LME Ni Average = ~$15.50/lbs.

EU battling Covid resurgence, resulting in labor shortages and lost efficiencies

We have confirmed this with several mills

RAM DROP LIST (sorted and filtered - ref Tag

No. with Inquiry)

Current Take

Plan, plan, plan, as far as you can. Yes, we've said this before, but felt the need to highlight it again. Work with your supplier on size/grade change programs. Don't panic, plan. This disaster can be navigated. Some customers are planning a year in advance, they will be the victors.

LEAD TIMES: The mill consensus is 2023, and some have closed capacity (no new orders). EU military spending could compound the problem, as mills would prioritize these orders.

PRICING: Yes, we saw another, our TENTH (10th), base price increase a few weeks ago, and surcharges are blowing past historical highs. EU quota relief carries great importance. The Biden Administration should seriously consider removing the tariff for EU countries due to inflation. Recent trade deal with the UK assists this effort.

Story to watch in 2022 (update): 2021 Energy and Aerospace demand for stainless steel and nickel alloys, while up from 2020, is nowhere near historical levels. Either sector can substantially disrupt an already discombobulated supply chain with traditional consumption.

Robust consumption in both sectors continues, and we are told that will certainly increase in the last half of the year, pending demand decrease due to price shock.

Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts

Ni Price History

Industry News

Click the links to read the articles below:

EU Quota Info

EU Quota System Highlights:

Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
- Link: Unofficial steel country quotas
Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Bulletins
- Link: US Customs and Border Protection Quota Utilizations found in its Commodity Status Reports
Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
Chaos and confusion are a certainty, clarity sometime late Q1/early Q2

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