April 2025 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
April 2025 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
THE THREE (3) TRUMP TARIFFS
- Drug War: 25% Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports | 20% Tariff on Chinese Imports
- Began March 4th
- Not excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- Steel War: 25% Section 232 Tariff on all Steel and Aluminum Imports
- Began March 12th
- Quotas Eliminated
- Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs TBD, awaiting
- Announced Yesterday (April 2nd)
- Beginning April 5, 2025 -10% minimum tariff on all imports
- Beginning April 9, 2025 - Country by country Tariff on all imports (see table below)
- President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on countries who retaliate.
- What countries will retaliate and how?
- Trade War Tariffs "shall apply until such time as I (President Trump) determine that the underlying conditions described above are satisfied, resolved, or mitigated"
- Some say don't bet on football because "holding and pass interference can be called on any play." This feels the same.
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Surcharges remained stable for and likely will do the same in May, but will tariffs push raw materials and therefore surcharges higher? Will tariffs cause an international trade war related depression, forcing raw materials and therefore surcharges lower? Trade war is negatively impacting US Dollar, which increases nickel price?
LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market, so you can imagine what tariffs will do to lead times (and pricing). Current lead times are comparatively short. How long will that last?
BASE PRICES: Our expectation for domestic stainless mills to raise prices like they did in 2018 has not materialized. Will that change with the new tariffs? Unknown. We believe this speaks loudly for poor demand. Once they fill capacity, prices will increase. Upcoming Boeing demand will have an impact. Continue to monitor EU energy costs - decreased last month, but all signs point to poor supply.
ADDED COST: NEW CONTAINER FEES OF UP TO $1.5MM ON CHINESE VESSELS. SHIPPING PRICES WILL RISE.
SECTION 232: March 12th - 25% tariff applied to all imported steel an aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good subject to Section 232 Tariffs.
RAM'S REACTION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
Industry News
Click the links to read the articles below:
- April 2, 2025 Executive Order on Trade War Tariffs
- China Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs
- US Dollar Tanks on Trade War
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