August 2025 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
August 2025 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
THE FOUR (4) TRUMP TARIFFS
- One - Drug War:
- Originally: 25% Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports | 20% Tariff on Chinese Imports
- Began March 4th
- Not excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- August 1, 2025: Canadian tariffs increased to 35%
- August 1, 2025: Mexican negotiations extended 90 days
- Two - Steel War: INCREASED TO 50% Section 232 Tariff on all COPPER, Steel and Aluminum
- Began March 12th - Original Tariff = 25%
- Quotas Eliminated. Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded and separate from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- June 4th: Tariff Rate Raised to 50%
- Except for UK - remains 25% while they negotiate (still negotiating)
- Tariffs for "derivatives" of steel and aluminum remain difficult to analyze, as either reciprocal or Section 232 tariffs apply, but the method for applying either is unclear
- August 1, 2025: Copper added to the 50% Section 232 tariffs, along with steel and aluminum
- Three - Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs Summarized
- April 2, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Announced
- Since April 2nd it's been chaos and confusion - the White House has issued statements, agreements, corrected statements, revised agreements, and so on
- On July 31st, the day before the extended deadline, President Trump signed an Executive Order adjusting the so-called “reciprocal” tariff rates announced on April, 2, 2025.
- The adjusted tariff rates, ranging from 10-41 percent, will take effect on August 7, 2025. Goods loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit before August 7, 2025 and entered before October 5, 2025 are exempt from the adjusted rates. Countries not listed in the table below are subject to a 10 percent reciprocal rate.
- Four - BRICS Tariff (new)
- July 7, 2025: President Trump threatened a new tariff "an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the 'Anti-American policies of BRICS."
- Meaning, application, interpretation, impact, etc.
- BRICS of course stands for: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
- Other members include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia
- BRICS Partner Countries: Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam
- Since July 7th, Brazil has been hit with higher tariffs and India has been threatened with an additional 100% tariff due to their Russian energy purchases
Reciprocal Tariffs
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Moly has been shot out of a cannon the last three months (chart below) and while Nickel has flattened, we expect increases in the near future. Interestingly, the supply vs. price gap is nearing Covid levels (chart below), and the oversupply is forcing some Indonesian mins to shutter until the price increases. We expect Nickel to rise.
LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market, so you can imagine what tariffs will do to lead times (and pricing). Current lead times remain comparatively short, but we believe this will change by Q4.
BASE PRICES: Some domestic mills finally raised prices to shockingly high levels. Certainly feels more "cover charge" related, rather than supply and demand. Market will determine longevity, and currently the manufacturing industry is in a slump (article below).
ADDED COST: NEW CONTAINER FEES OF UP TO $1.5MM ON CHINESE VESSELS.
SECTION 232: JUNE 4TH - 50% TARIFF applied to all imported copper, steel, and aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good accessed Section 232 Tariffs.
RAM'S RECATION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
US DOLLAR (DOWN) v. LME (Ni) Price (UP)
Copyright (c) 2024 Argus Media Group
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Industry News
- New Round of Global Tariffs: A Round Up
- Executive Order Further Modifying The Reciprocal Tariff Rates
- Executive Fact Sheet Amends Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs
- US manufacturing extends slump; factory employment lowest in 5 years
- Trump has final say in Chinese Tariff Truce
- Trump hits Brazil with steep tariffs
- Copper added to the 50% Section 232 Tariffs
- Indian/USA trade relations strained
- Trump admin accuses India of financing Russian war
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