February 2026 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
February 2026 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
THE FOUR (4) TRUMP TARIFFS
- One - Drug War:
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- Validity subject to upcoming Supreme Court Ruling
- Current Estimates: 35% Tariff on Canada | 25% on Mexico | ~10% Tariff on China
- Two - Steel War: INCREASED TO 50% Section 232 Tariff on all COPPER, Steel and Aluminum
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- Validity NOT subject to upcoming Supreme Court Ruling
- Began March 12th - Original Tariff = 25%
- Quotas Eliminated. Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded and separate from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- June 4th: Tariff Rate Raised to 50%
- Except for UK - remains 25% while they negotiate (still negotiating)
- Tariffs for "derivatives" of steel and aluminum remain difficult to analyze, as either reciprocal or Section 232 tariffs apply, but the method for applying either is unclear
- August 1, 2025: Copper added to the 50% Section 232 tariffs, along with steel and aluminum
- Three - Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs
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- Validity subject to upcoming Supreme Court Ruling
- Current Estimates: Extremely fluid - varies by country and by product
- Click: Reciprocal Tariff Table
- India reciprocal tariff reduced to 18% via new trade deal
- Four - BRICS Tariff (new - threatened)
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- July 7, 2025: President Trump threatened a new tariff "an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the 'Anti-American policies of BRICS."
- Meaning, application, interpretation, impact, etc.
- BRICS of course stands for: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
- Other members include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia
- BRICS Partner Countries: Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam
- Since July 7th, Brazil has been hit with higher tariffs (no 40%) and India has been threatened with an additional 100% tariff due to their Russian energy purchases
- New Indian Trade Deal muted this threat...for now
- The "Sanctioning Russia Act" currently before the Senate contemplates up to 500% tariffs
Drug War and Reciprocal Tariff SCOTUS Trial
On August 29th, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled President Trump exceeded his authority and invalidated several tariffs.
Notably, Section 232 Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper remain unaffected and valid.
SCOTUS expedited the appeal and heard over 2.5 hours of oral arguments on November 5th.
SCOTUS DECISION DAY: TBD
The Court is not on a deadline. Many people think it will be after the State of the Union on February 24th, but we honestly don't know.
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: February's surcharge skyrocketed by $0.18/LB, to an 18 month high. This movement was expected due to rising Nickel prices amid Indonesian supply cuts (see chart below). Anticipated (and now confirmed) production cuts led to inventory builds, which helps explain the parallel rise in both Nickel prices and stock levels recently (see chart below). Molybdenum and Chrome joined the party by acheiving their own highs (see chart below).
The combination of a weakening U.S. Dollar, along with ongoing Indonesian supply cuts, is expected to lead to increased Nickel prices, which indicates an even higher March Surcharge (especially with moly and chrome prices). The current supply chain continues to carry heavily tariffed inventory, so expect price to continue to increase.
Will this be sustainable? The market will determine.
LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market. Lead times are, as expected, mixed, but soon will change (for the worst):
- USA mills lead times are pushing out
- Foreign mill capacity is starting to fill. Monitor this situation.
BASE PRICES: Recent USA price increases remain in effect, and we expect them to hold given extended lead times.
SECTION 232: JUNE 4TH - 50% TARIFF applied to all imported copper, steel, and aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good accessed Section 232 Tariffs.
RAM'S REACTION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
90 DAY LME Ni Stock v LME Ni Price (top) 1 YEAR Moly and Chrome Price History (bottom)
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