January 2026 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
January 2026 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
THE FOUR (4) TRUMP TARIFFS
- One - Drug War:
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- Validity subject to upcoming Supreme Court Ruling
- Current Estimates: 35% Tariff on Canada | 25% on Mexico | ~50% Tariff on China
- Two - Steel War: INCREASED TO 50% Section 232 Tariff on all COPPER, Steel and Aluminum
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- Validity NOT subject to upcoming Supreme Court Ruling
- Began March 12th - Original Tariff = 25%
- Quotas Eliminated. Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded and separate from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- June 4th: Tariff Rate Raised to 50%
- Except for UK - remains 25% while they negotiate (still negotiating)
- Tariffs for "derivatives" of steel and aluminum remain difficult to analyze, as either reciprocal or Section 232 tariffs apply, but the method for applying either is unclear
- August 1, 2025: Copper added to the 50% Section 232 tariffs, along with steel and aluminum
- Three - Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs
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- Validity subject to upcoming Supreme Court Ruling
- Current Estimates: Extremely fluid - varies by country and by product
- Click: Reciprocal Tariff Table
- Four - BRICS Tariff (new - threatened)
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- July 7, 2025: President Trump threatened a new tariff "an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the 'Anti-American policies of BRICS."
- Meaning, application, interpretation, impact, etc.
- BRICS of course stands for: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
- Other members include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia
- BRICS Partner Countries: Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam
- Since July 7th, Brazil has been hit with higher tariffs (no 40%) and India has been threatened with an additional 100% tariff due to their Russian energy purchases
- The "Sanctioning Russia Act" currently before the Senate contemplates up to 500% tariffs
Drug War and Reciprocal Tariff SCOTUS Trial
On August 29th, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled President Trump exceeded his authority and invalidated several tariffs.
Notably, Section 232 Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper remain unaffected and valid.
SCOTUS expedited the appeal and heard over 2.5 hours of oral arguments on November 5th.
SCOTUS Decision Day: Friday, January 9, 2026
Many believe President Trump will lose this case. However, for reasons stated in previous newsletters, tariffs and uncertainty will remain, regardless of the Court's decision...especially if Trump preemptively neuters any damage model by issuing "Tariff rebates," since it will be difficult to truly define harmed parties as any entity other than the American taxpayers.
If Trump loses, it will be curious if the Court suggests legally permissible Tariff provisions for future "negotiations" and "collections."
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: January's surcharge reached 7 month lows; however, Nickel has skyrocketed in the last few weeks to 15 month highs (Moly too) due to Indonesian supply concerns and Chinese buying, indicating a much higher February surcharge. Regardless of the surcharge, the current supply chain is overwhelmingly tariffed inventory, so expect price increases. Will this be sustainable? The market will determine.
LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market. Lead times are, as expected, mixed, but soon will change (for the worst):
- USA mills lead times are pushing out
- Foreign mills are hungry and aggressively pursuing business (we believe this is short lived)
BASE PRICES: Recent USA price increases remain in effect, and we expect them to hold given extended lead times.
SECTION 232: JUNE 4TH - 50% TARIFF applied to all imported copper, steel, and aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good accessed Section 232 Tariffs.
RAM'S REACTION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.
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