July 2025 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
July 2025 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
THE FOUR (4) TRUMP TARIFFS
- One - Drug War: 25% Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports | 20% Tariff on Chinese Imports
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- Began March 4th
- Not excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- Two - Steel War: INCREASED TO 50% Section 232 Tariff on all Steel and Aluminum Imports
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- Began March 12th
- Original Tariff = 25%
- Quotas Eliminated
- Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- June 4th: Tariff Rate Raised to 50%
- Except for UK - remains 25% while they negotiate (July 9th deadline)
- Tariffs for "derivatives" of steel and aluminum remain difficult to analyze, as either reciprocal or Section 232 tariffs apply, but the method for applying either is unclear
- Three - Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs Timeline
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- April 2, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Announced
- Beginning April 5, 2025 -10% minimum tariff on all imports
- Beginning April 9, 2025 - Country by country Tariff on all imports (see table below)
- April 9, 2025: Announced 90 day pause on Reciprocal Tariffs - all countries but China assessed a 10% baseline tariff.
- China Reciprocal tariffs have been adjusted several times since April 9th, currently 125% - 145% with negotiations allegedly ongoing
- May 28, 2025: Court ruled Reciprocal Tariffs now within President Trump's Power
- May 29, 2025: Appeals Court reversed the pause and reinstated Reciprocal Tariffs
- Recall: President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on countries who retaliate.
- What countries will retaliate and how?
- Recall: Trade War Tariffs "shall apply until such time as I (President Trump) determine that the underlying conditions described above are satisfied, resolved, or mitigated"
- Anything is possible, nothing is predictable
- July 6, 2025: April 9th pause extended to August 1, 2025
- July 7, 2025: Fourteen (14) countries accessed a reciprocal tariff, effective August 1st. A few steel relevant countries named:
- Japan: 25%
- South Korea: 25%
- Malaysia: 25%
- South Africa: 30%
- Indonesia: 32%
- Several Asian countries targeted, possibly due to assisting China circumvent tariffs (article below)
- President Trump stated he was "very close" to a deal with India
- July 9, 2025 (now irrelevant): Original 90 day pause deadline, extended on July 6th
- August 1, 2025: New pause deadline, so Reciprocal Tariffs begin
- Four - BRICS Tariff (new)
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- July 7, 2025: President Trump threatened a new tariff "an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the 'Anti-American policies of BRICS."
- Meaning, application, interpretation, impact, etc.
- BRICS of course stands for: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
- Other members include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia
- BRICS Partner Countries: Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Although Nickel decreased (as expected), surcharges rose in July due to increases in Moly, Chrome, and Natural Gas. The collapsing US Dollar index is propping up Nickel prices, despite the trade war's downward pressure. Another future impact: the world's leading Nickel producer, Indonesia, discussing shortening the mining quota by two (2) years to address oversupply (article below).
LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market, so you can imagine what tariffs will do to lead times (and pricing). Current lead times remain comparatively short, but we believe this will change by Q4.
BASE PRICES: Some domestic mills finally raised prices to shockingly high levels. Certainly feels more "cover charge" related, rather than supply and demand. Market will determine longevity. This move was premature by about 6-9 months, but I guess they'd rather be early than late. Coincidentally, the Department of Commerce recently unleashed new anti-dumping duties against foreign steel producers (Indian article below). Tariffs + anti-dumping duties = higher domestic prices.
ADDED COST: NEW CONTAINER FEES OF UP TO $1.5MM ON CHINESE VESSELS.
SECTION 232: JUNE 4TH - 50% TARIFF applied to all imported steel an aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good accessed Section 232 Tariffs.
RAM'S RECATION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
US DOLLAR (DOWN) v. LME (Ni) Price (UP)
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Industry News
- Department of Commerce announces new anti-dumping duties against Indian steel
- President Trump threatens 10% BRIC Tariff
- Reciprocal Tariffs announced for 14 countries, all others wait until August 1st
- Mining Oversupply: Indonesia plans to cut mining quota form 3 year to 1 year
- 2025 US Dollar Index down 10.8%, worst first half decline since 1973
- UK Steel Industry hopeful for favorable tariff announcement this week
- USA and India near a trade deal
- China might be re-routing exports through Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs
- President Trump announces trade deal with Vietnam
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