June 2025 Nickel & Surcharge Update

Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update

June 2025 Update

Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.

THE THREE (3) TRUMP TARIFFS

One - Drug War: 25% Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports | 20% Tariff on Chinese Imports
- Began March 4th
- Not excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
Two - Steel War: INCREASED TO 50% Section 232 Tariff on all Steel and Aluminum Imports
- Began March 12th
- Original Tariff = 25%
- Quotas Eliminated
- Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- June 4th: Tariff Rate Raised to 50%
- Tariffs for "derivatives" of steel and aluminum remain difficult to analyze, as either reciprocal or Section 232 tariffs apply, but the method for applying either is unclear
Three - Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs Timeline
- April 2, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Announced
- April 9, 2025: Announced 90 day pause on Reciprocal Tariffs - all countries but China assessed a 10% baseline tariff.
- May 28, 2025: Court ruled Reciprocal Tariffs now within President Trump's Power
- May 29, 2025: Appeals Court reversed the pause and reinstated Reciprocal Tariffs
- Recall: President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on countries who retaliate.
- Recall: Trade War Tariffs "shall apply until such time as I (President Trump) determine that the underlying conditions described above are satisfied, resolved, or mitigated"
- July 9, 2025: 90 day pause deadline, so Reciprocal Tariffs begin

Current Take

RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Surcharges and element pricing relatively unchanged in June, and we expect this to continue as long as the trade war remains active. However, a Chinese owned Indonesian Ni producer recently stopped production due to low prices (article below). This usually indicates a price increase is near. Of course, this stopped could simply be a trade war strategy...who knows.

LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market, so you can imagine what tariffs will do to lead times (and pricing). Current lead times remain comparatively short, but we believe this will change by Q4.

BASE PRICES: Domestic mills have yet to raise prices on low demand, EVEN AFTER THE 50% TARIFF ANNOUNCED. Once they fill capacity, prices will increase. Upcoming Boeing demand will have an impact. How will the market respond to a US and China trade deal? That could have post-COVID-like rebound.

ADDED COST: NEW CONTAINER FEES OF UP TO $1.5MM ON CHINESE VESSELS. SHIPPING PRICES WILL RISE. HOW DOES ONE KNOW THE OWNER OF THE VESSEL CARRYING THEIR GOODS TO PREDICT THIS NEW COST?

SECTION 232: JUNE 4TH - 50% TARIFF applied to all imported steel an aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good subject to Section 232 Tariffs.

RAM'S RECATION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.

Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts

US DOLLAR (DOWN) v. LME (Ni) Price (UP)

Industry News

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