May 2025 Nickel & Surcharge Update
Monthly Nickel and Surcharge Update
May 2025 Update
Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
THE THREE (3) TRUMP TARIFFS
- Drug War: 25% Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports | 20% Tariff on Chinese Imports
- Began March 4th
- Not excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- Steel War: 25% Section 232 Tariff on all Steel and Aluminum Imports
- Began March 12th
- Quotas Eliminated
- Exemption Process Terminated
- Excluded from Trade War Reciprocal Tariffs
- Trade War: Reciprocal Tariffs Timeline
- April 2, 2025: Reciprocal Tariffs Announced
- Beginning April 5, 2025 -10% minimum tariff on all imports
- Beginning April 9, 2025 - Country by country Tariff on all imports (see table below)
- April 9, 2025: Announced 90 day pause on Reciprocal Tariffs - all countries but China assessed a 10% baseline tariff.
- China Reciprocal tariffs have been adjusted several times since April 9th, currently 125% - 145% with negotiations allegedly ongoing
- Recall: President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on countries who retaliate.
- What countries will retaliate and how?
- Recall: Trade War Tariffs "shall apply until such time as I (President Trump) determine that the underlying conditions described above are satisfied, resolved, or mitigated"
- Anything is possible, nothing is predictable
Current Take
RAW MATERIAL PRICES: Even though Nickel rose, May 316 Surcharges dropped to the lowest levels in almost 4 years. Why? Moly and energy surcharge components dropped significantly. However, summer months and an expected rebound in moly prices may impact the June-August s/c. Nickel prices should remain or slightly increase due to weakening US Dollar. Moly has been greatly impacted by the trade war, but recent low prices are unprofitable for producers, so an increase is expected.
LEAD TIMES: Domestic steel capacity is insufficient to fulfill US demand in any market, so you can imagine what tariffs will do to lead times (and pricing). Current lead times remain comparatively short, but we believe this will change by Q4.
BASE PRICES: Domestic mills have yet to raise prices on low demand. Once they fill capacity, prices will increase. Upcoming Boeing demand will have an impact. How will the market respond to a US and China trade deal? That could have post-COVID-like rebound.
ADDED COST: NEW CONTAINER FEES OF UP TO $1.5MM ON CHINESE VESSELS. SHIPPING PRICES WILL RISE.
SECTION 232: March 12th - 25% tariff applied to all imported steel an aluminum. Quotas and exemptions were eliminated. Reciprocal tariffs do not apply to good subject to Section 232 Tariffs.
RAM'S RECATION: Filter the noise. Control what we can control. Attempt to define as many variables as possible in a world surrounded by unknowns. Leverage our inventory, operational excellence, and market knowledge to assist our customers in times of crisis. In other words...business as usual.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
US DOLLAR (DOWN) v. LME (Ni) Price (UP)
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Industry News
- The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) this week forecast a nickel market surplus of 198,000t for 2025
- Moly prices might rebound in May - producers margin nearing negative territory, indicating bottom
- US Treasury Secretary says "Big Opportunity for US, China Trade Deal"
- India offers zero for zero trade deal
- Trump Badly Needs a Chinese Trade Deal
Ram Alloys is a niche service center supplying a complete inventory of stainless steel, nickel products, pump shaft quality bars, and boat shaft quality bars in a full range of standard grades. Value-added services include comprehensive and customized processing options, prompt shipping, same-day order turnaround, and 24/7 availability. We're here to ensure that your procurement needs are met quickly and accurately, minimizing schedule impacts and return material authorizations. Request a quote today!