January 2022 Nickel & Surcharge Update
January 2022 Update
Happy New Year! Thanks for reading the Ram Alloys Monthly Nickel and 316L s/c update, intended to help our valued customers make educated business decisions.
EU Quota System Highlights:
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Quotas by EU country, not mill, and by HTS Code, not grade
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Quarterly volumes based on a first come/first served bases
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Imported volumes > quota assessed a 25% tariff
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Exclusions apply, but adjustments under consideration
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Chaos and confusion are a certainty, clarity sometime late Q1/early Q2
Current Take
As expected, the Ni component of the January s/c increased; however, January, as a whole, remained flat due to a DECREASE in the energy s/c. Notwithstanding, February should rise, as EU energy prices continue to explode. In fact, they are so high, the EU recently drafted plans labeling natural gas and nuclear as "Green Energy." (see articles below).
Ni stock draws remain healthy, with EV production contributing to that decline. Although stock draws usually result in higher prices (supply and demand), a stronger USD had a periodic, reverse impact on the recent Ni price trends. (see articles and charts below).
Story to watch in 2022: 2021 Energy and Aerospace demand for stainless steel and nickel alloys, while up from 2020, is nowhere near historical levels. Either sector can substantially disrupt an already discombobulated supply chain with traditional consumption.
Yearly/Monthly 316L s/c and Ni Charts
Ni Price v. Ni Stock Comparison
USD Index v. Nickel Prices
Industry News
Click the links to read each article:
- EVs and Ni Supply: major imbalance ahead
- Tariff Rate Quota System to Replace Section 232 Tariffs
- Japan and USA: negotiating quotas in lieu of tariffs
- EU Gas Prices Jump 20% as Russia Caps Volumes
- EU Gas Traders "High Prices Will Persist Beyond Winter"
- EU Drafts Plans to Label Nuclear and Gas as "Green Energy"
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